Pop Culture and Politics
Republicans and Democrats are two tribes (barely) living in harmony. The divide is very apparent across political issues. Immigration, abortion, and gun policies are polarizing issues with no room for compromise. However, the cultural divide is more than just policy differences. Partisans have very different foundational stories that lead to unbridgeable gaps. Is America the “land of the free” or “colonists living on stolen ground?” The different foundational stories are partly due to varying preferences for cultural products. Political opponents are decreasingly likely to share a common culture and experiences. Harris fans watch MSNBC, while Trump fans watch Fox.
The alignment of popular culture sectors with political parties is fascinating and troubling. In previous generations, there was significantly more shared culture. Republicans and Democrats watched the same network television shows and movies, attended the same sporting events, and watched the same news anchors. While Michael Jordan famously remarked that “Republicans buy sneakers, too, LeBron James is a polarizing figure. Perhaps, relatedly, The NBA championship series of the 1990s would often draw 30 million plus viewers, while the championship series of the 2020s draw a third of that number.
In some respects, the development of specific Republican and Democratic popular cultures was an inevitable consequence of technological developments that have expanded content distribution. However, the consequences of Americans sharing less common culture have significant implications. Fewer shared experiences mean less common ground, less understanding, and more animosity.
In the first paragraph, I use the terms Harris fans and Trump fans rather than ideological terms like Liberals and Conservatives. Ideology has its roots in beliefs about the morality and efficiency of how a society is designed. Fandom is about passion for and engagement with cultural entities. Examining fandom is a vital element in understanding a society. A society that loves rock music, baseball, and blue jeans feels different than one that is crazy about classical music, soccer, and high fashion. Examining the fandoms of Republicans and Democrats can illuminate the cultural divide in American politics. Societies tend to produce more of what people want. If NFL fandom is robust, then we get Thursday night football, expanded playoffs, and three days of draft coverage. TikTok illustrates this phenomenon at a micro level as influencers create content based on the day's trends.
The Data
Our annual fandom survey, the Next Generation Fandom Survey (Emory Marketing Analytics Center), studies the diversity and foundations of American culture. The 2024 edition collected data from over two thousand Americans, ensuring equal representation from Gen Z, Millennials, Gen X, and Baby Boomers. This diverse sample allows us to capture each generation's unique perspectives and preferences. The survey data also provides many opportunities to examine how fandom differs across all sorts of segments, such as age, gender, educational level, and political preferences.
Rather than focus on Republican versus Democratic preferences, I decided to examine the differences between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris fans. The results would be similar if I used political ideology, but Trump and Harris each have unique aspects that make it worthwhile to look at segments defined by the party standard bearers rather than the parties. For example, Trump has “haters” in the Republican ranks, and he is also a movement candidate who emphasizes opposition to the establishment to a greater degree than traditional Republicans. Harris emphasizes her demographic traits and is more progressive than many Democrats.
The figure below shows the relative fandom for 45 celebrities for Donald Trump and Kamala Harris fans. Fandom for the two candidates was determined by asking each respondent to rate their fandom for the candidates on a 7-point scale. The subject is classified as a fan if the respondent rated their fandom as a 6 or 7. Relative fandom is assessed by calculating each celebrity's average fandom rating and comparing each celeb's score to the average fandom across all celebrities in the Harris and Trump fandom segments. The survey includes celebrities from sports, music, movies, comedy, and other popular culture sectors.
The average fandom rating for the Trump segment was 4.33, while the average for the Harris fandom segment was 4.89. This difference in the average rating across segments is substantial and reveals something incredibly important about American politics and society. Trump fans are significantly less engaged with popular culture than Harris fans. This brings up an important point about market structure. If conservatives are less interested in the current popular culture, why do we not see cultural institutions filling the gap? That’s a great question, but it's beyond today’s post.
Rather than report raw segment-level ratings, I report ratings relative to each segment’s base fandom level. For example, country music star Morgen Wallen receives an average rating of 4.46 from Donald Trump fans and 4.47 from Kamala Harris fans. Rather than report the raw ratings, I look at the relative ratings within each segment (Trump and Harris fans). Wallen scores 3% about the average celebrity score in the Trump segment [(4.47-4.33)/4.33] but -8.5% below the average celebrity score in the Harris segment.
I report the relative fandom rankings because they show how Harris fans and Trump fans differ in their fandoms. Harris’s fans are a smaller group and seem more focused on popular culture. The raw scores are informative but can be misleading. While they rank Wallen higher in raw ratings, Wallen is also a below-average celebrity within the group. The figure shows the relative ranking of Trump fans on the horizontal axis and the relative ranking of Harris fans on the vertical axis.
Broadly, celebrities in the upper left are more the folks loved by Harris fans and disliked by Trump fans. Celebrities in the lower right quadrant score high with Trump fans and low with Harris fans. The way to assess the cultural divide is to imagine a 45-degree line in the figure. The greater the distance above the line, the more relative preference is for Harris, and the farther below the line, the greater the relative preference for Trump.
It is a fascinating picture in several respects. The most universally beloved celebrities are those with long histories and unknown or neutral political opinions. Dolly Parton is the most loved celebrity in America, followed by Michael Jordan, Shaq, and The Rock. On the other hand, the celebrities with the lowest fandoms are those with less history and mainly internet-based distribution. There is relatively little interest in people like Alex Earl, Jake Paul, or Dave Portnoy from either Trump or Harris fans.
The people who perform much better with Harris fans than Trump fans include activists, pop stars who appeal to younger female demographics, and African Americans. Celebrities who do well with Trump fans relative to Harris fans include athletes, country musicians, and counter-culture figures like Joe Rogan. The most polarizing celebrities are Elon Musk on the Trump side and Colin Kaepernick on the Harris side. The Table below lists the top 5 most divisive celebrities for each fandom.
The figure shows how popular culture fandom is correlated with fandom for the two candidates. The general patterns are probably unsurprising as activist athletes embody the same progressive ideals as Harris, while Joe Rogan and Elon Musk represent a response to “woke” culture.
It reveals some interesting aspects of modern American culture and highlights that politics and entertainment are just two fronts in the same culture war. The critical point is that our culture has fragmented over time. There are few entertainers and events that command mass audiences. The Super Bowl still attracts 100 million viewers, but the days of America tuning in to watch the MASH or Seinfeld finale are long over. Even mainstream sports like MLB and the NBA now only attract a fraction of the television audiences they commanded a generation ago. We are now a society of niche cultural interests. We can only agree on a few folks like Dolly Parton and The Rock.
Commentary
This is intended as a quick essay rather than an academic analysis, but some comments are warranted. First, an alternative interpretation of the results is that Harris and Trump fandom are better viewed as outcomes of the current culture rather than independent segmentation variables. In this interpretation, a progressive cultural segment includes fans of pop music, activist athletes, and democratic politicians. There is also a “Trump” cultural segment that includes fans of country music and dark web media personalities. In this interpretation, Harris's fandom is an outcome of the current cultural and political environments rather than something intrinsic to Kamala Harris. I’m sympathetic to this point of view, given how Harris was suddenly able to fill arenas after being “selected” as the nominee despite having very low approval rates as the sitting VP. In contrast, Trump fandom seems unique to Donald Trump. My read is that Trump fandom is unique but closely related to an “anti-establishment” cultural segment.
I suspect that one reason we see ever-increasing polarization and divergent fandoms is that the institutions that create culture have become highly partisan. It's almost cliché to suggest that the media, Hollywood, and academia are leftward biased. Even the notion that cultural institutions are biased is fodder for argument. In academia, the response to accusations of bias is usually (and comically? Pathetically?) some form of an argument that academia is liberal because smart people are liberal.
However, the raw fandom data that found significantly higher fandom in the Harris segment relative to the Trump segment (4.89 versus 4.33) is consistent with bias in organizations that create cultural content. If Hollywood and the music industry tend to create leftward-biased products, then we would expect that they would be more enjoyed by progressives than conservatives. This also brings up another of the great mysteries of the current age. If half the country is rightwing, why do media and entertainment companies not create products for the segment? The fact that the average fandom ratings are lower suggests that media, entertainment, and sports organizations are neglecting significant market segments.
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