Our deep dive into Political Fandom and the 2024 Election
The Podcast
Political Fandom and the 2024 Election: Trump vs. Harris
In this episode of the Fanalytics podcast, Mike Lewis from Emory University delves into the concept of political fandom, using the upcoming 2024 election contest between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris as a case study. The discussion covers the role of narratives, the impact of media, and the importance of core metrics like fandom in predicting election outcomes. Lewis highlights the differences in fan and anti-fan rates between the candidates across various demographics, including gender, generation, race, and cultural segments. He also discusses the potential for a highly negative and closely contested election, underlining the volatility and unpredictability of modern political campaigns.
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The Essay (lots of figures, data and words).
Political Fandom: Donald Trump versus Kamala Harris
The 2024 Presidential campaign has been a roller coaster ride this summer. The upheavals are so fast and unprecedented that the reaction to each event often seems too muted. An assassination attempt and sudden pre-convention withdrawal? In a past generation, these events would be decisive, but in 2024, they seem like just the latest blip in the news cycle. The polls never seem to move more than a couple of points. In such an oddly volatile but also stable environment, our best bet to understanding what is going to transpire during the last 100 days of the election cycle is to look at data that gets to the heart of how voters view the candidates. My choice of fundamental data or essential metric is candidate fandom.
Fandom is an unusual metric in politics, but it should be more common. Fandom is about passion for and loyalty to a cultural entity, be it a team, singer, university, or even politician. In fact, MAGA Trump supporters and Bernie Bros share many characteristics with Swifties and Lakers fans. Fans of all these things show up, spend, wear branded apparel, and fiercely defend the object of their fandom. The politicians who inspire fandom, such as AOC, Donald Trump, Barack Obama, and Marjorie Taylor Green, enjoy many advantages and are the celebrities of the political world.....
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Lewis examines the geometry dash variations in the rates of support and opposition for the candidates across different demographic groups, such as gender, age, race, and cultural divisions. In addition, he examines the possibility of a very unfavorable and fiercely disputed election, emphasizing the instability and uncertainty of contemporary political campaigns.